ArchPundit

2/27/2004

Forward March


To the new site:


archpundit.com

I'll be putting an auto-forward code on this page in the next couple days. Blog Saint Louis is still at the old address for now.

archpundit 2/27/2004 12:47:06 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
2/24/2004

Look Strange?


Yes, Blogstudio was acting up right after I moved most posts over to the new site. On top of that, two very sick little girls and there won't be any posts today and probably tomorrow. However, the new site is almost ready for a Wednesday or Thursday unveiling.
archpundit 2/24/2004 11:02:41 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
2/21/2004

test


test
archpundit 2/21/2004 2:39:54 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
2/20/2004

The Other Side of the Coin


From a reader:

"Orders of Protection" are not at all unusual in a divorce proceeding in Illinois, particularly when a lot of money is at stake. This is a not a "No Fault" divorce state, so divorces can be hotly contested even between amicable parties. This could have been the scenario: Hull's wife changes the locks on the house, puts his clothes on the sidewalk, and gets an Order barring him from entering the property. Suddenly possession of the house becomes her's until the matter is settled, and possession is 9/10ths of the law -- literally. Hull shouldn't have to respond because he has children and grandchildren who love him and don't need to relive a difficult time, just because he hasn't lived the now-conventional life of the aspiring politician (squeeky-clean, all the right schools, degrees, jobs, etc.). One of the things that attracts me to Blair is that he is a true citizen-politician. He has lived a real life, full of successes and failures (some ugly). I'd rather him than some bubble-born child, scrubed since childhood, whose career choice is a life in government, and wouldn't know a real-life problem if it smacked them in the face.
======

While I disagree with the notion that he shouldn't have to release the information, I think the above makes a good point about
1) not prejudging the situation
2) understanding that everyone is not perfect

I think the best strategy at this point is to wait for Monday.
archpundit 2/20/2004 3:28:37 PM - [Link] - Comments ()

Hull Statement


Zorn reports on the Hull Campaign reaction to the Trib's request to release the forms:

Your request... enters into Blair and Brenda's most personal and private lives, and affects not only Blair and Brenda, but their children as well. These, and other family members, who are not public figures, need to be advised of your request, and their privacy concerns must be considered. It will take until Monday to give everyone in both families the opportunity to consider their options and be apprised of their rights


Eric reinterprets it as evidence of stalling. Perhaps, perhaps not. Eitehr way, giving Monday as a deadline is actually promising. Instead of drawing it out, they give a statement that effectively kills the story until more information is available. Either they won't release which keeps the story alive, or they do and the story lasts probably not much more than a cycle with full disclosure.

Now let me give my lecture to people considering entering the political realm at the Congress or above level (and even lower if you are going to face a tough race). Be ready for your life to be public. Don't like it? Get over it or don't run. Before you get very far, find a political professional and confess your sins. Tell them everything. Then plan how to release any embarrassing information before it comes out by the press. That way, you can control the story.

The worst thing is to let it hang there for a while or surprise you at the last minute. We are still talking about the President's military record four years later and on the eve of the election a DUI from 25 years ago came out. Now which was worse? Releasing it in 1994 during his first run for Governor or the public finding out just before the election? I thought so.
archpundit 2/20/2004 3:21:39 PM - [Link] - Comments ()

New Blogs


Polis--covering the Senate race in good detail

Chicago: Howtown on the Make

And someone I've mentioned before and is going to be on the new blog roll
Dan Johnson-Weinberger
archpundit 2/20/2004 3:05:58 PM - [Link] - Comments ()

If I was the Prince of Darkness, he was the Happy Warrior.


Novak does probably the best tribute to Neal. One should always be able to laugh when remembering someone who has passed.
archpundit 2/20/2004 2:42:43 PM - [Link] - Comments ()

Why Kathuria's Lawsuit Should Have Been Predicted


As I've mentioned before, the Kathuria lawsuit against the Trib really turned some modestly positive press into a no press. The press wasn't upset as much as amused and amusing candidates don't get a ton of press. Real candidates do.

A campaign manager who understood the game would have stopped him from filing suit. Using the press to rally the troops and raise cash is all well and good, but suing is counterproductive and takes time away from the actual campaign.

So what about Kathuria's campaign manager? One John Zahm, who used to also work for Chris Lauzen. Those who read the web site regularly will recognize the Lauzen name from merciless ridicule here. Why?

Pantagraph November 15, 1998

GENEVA, Ill. (AP) - The losing candidate for state comptroller says he will push ahead with a libel lawsuit against his Republican primary opponent because he wants to make a point about negative campaigning.

State Sen. Chris Lauzen, R-Aurora, beaten by Chicago Democrat Dan Hynes in last week's general election, is turning his attention to a $1 million libel lawsuit he filed against Elgin businessman Harry Seigle over tactics in the March primary race that Lauzen won.

One of Seigle's radio commercials accused Lauzen of lying to voters, claimed he "opened the door to more gambling in Illinois" and linked him to a business that failed to pay its taxes. Lauzen claims the statements are false and defamatory.

"If we're not going to drive all the good people out of politics because they don't want themselves or their family's reputations dragged through the gutter, then somebody's going to have to stand up when it happens to them and say here's where the line is," Lauzen said Thursday after a status hearing in Kane County Circuit Court.


That was settled for a $2000 donation to the United Way, but Lauzen wasn't done:
From the Daily Herald, March 29, 2001

If the name fits: Finally, there is state Sen. Chris Lauzen. Chris isn't up for election this year, but that hasn't stopped him from providing some dandy comic relief. As readers may remember, Chris went to court to have his name legally changed to "Chris Lauzen, CPA." I guess he had his reasons, but a judge saw it differently, and this week denied the name-change petition. Word is Chris plans to appeal, but I hope he rethinks his position. I believe he should go for a moniker that really catches the essence of what he brings to the political arena. I hear the name Bozo will be available soon.


Zahm, Kathuria's campaign manager until recently is now threatening lawsuits against people on a message board.

We can lament about how politics is mean and tough, but it is. People who can't handle that are in the wrong line of work--and the Kathuria campaign is a great example of why.


archpundit 2/20/2004 2:31:31 PM - [Link] - Comments ()

Leader's Unbalanced Readers


Are at work on conspiracies behind Steve Neal's death. Maybe they could just allow the man to rest in peace.
archpundit 2/20/2004 1:26:40 PM - [Link] - Comments ()

Oberweis On Dobbs


Taking the Pat Buchanan route to the GOP nomination now has Oberweis getting attention on Lou Dobbs. While I'm often critical of Democrats who are protectionist (Mr. Hynes), Republican protectionists always seem to outdo them in stupidity with nativism mixed in with the bad economics. Strangely, for a mouthpiece of business, Dobbs finds an issue that business is generally most correct on (free trade) and deviates from it mixing in his own little bit of nativism.

Lou has a protectionistapalooza on tonight

From the, when I was a kid and walked both ways up hill to school, it wasn't that long ago I used to have to argue with fellow Democrats about free trade being good and deficits being bad.


archpundit 2/20/2004 12:59:01 PM - [Link] - Comments ()

Missouri Pork Association Endorses Kit Bond


So many meanings, so little time
archpundit 2/20/2004 10:10:47 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
2/19/2004

Earl's Cry For Help


A couple things struck me about Earl's latest missive.

First, Earl acts as if he expected the last e-mail to be private. For those who remember it, his postscript was:
P.S. I dare you to print this e-mail verbatim: You know as well as I do that most people know I speak the truth, and you are a liar and whore who takes to heart Lenin's dictum that "The first duty of the propagandist is to subvert the meaning of words."


Second, ArchPundit and Blog Saint Louis started in August of 2002, fully 7 years after the Smetzer murder. I'm unclear why that should have been a pressing issue. In fact, there are very few discussions of specific crimes on the sites unless it concerns the death penalty or a policy issue. If you want juicy crime stories, read the St. Louis Evening Whirl.

In Earl's twisted world every bad thing an African-American does is evidence of their inferiority. Not suprisingly, Earl doesn't work the opposite way where every positive action by an African-American is seen as evidence of their superiority.
archpundit 2/19/2004 9:52:37 PM - [Link] - Comments ()

Heeee'sssss Baaaccckkkk



"Gentlemen":


 


Now that it appears the RIVERFRONT TIMES is finally bored by the controversy (after 13 weeks!) I'd like to take this opportunity to thank the RFT and that 32 year-old perpetual student, the archpundit, for unwittingly participating as subjects in a small study I conducted.



 


For the eight years we have hosted our radio show on Friday nights, my co-host and I have been struck by the fact that the left in this country genuinely appears to believe that use of the "N-word" is a far more egregious crime than the rape and murder of innocent Whites. That was my hypothesis, and although not an empirical study, at least two lefties proved it has substantial validity.



 


I can find no mention in the arhives of either the RFT or the archpundit.com of the rape and murder of Christine Smetzer, an innocent 14 year-old girl, who was followed into the girls? restroom at McCluer North, where she was raped, murdered and had her head stuck in the toilet by a nigro savage. In contrast, my use of the "N-word" in a private e-mail was treated by these worthies as The Crime of the Century.


 


Thank you for participating in my study, and for revealing your true nature: The rest of us now have a somewhat better measure of the hypocrisy, as well as the moral and intellectual bankruptcy which plagues the commies, socialists and traitors who constitute the American left. 


 


Earl Holt III


St. Louis, MO





For those wanting to see the original, go here
archpundit 2/19/2004 8:50:47 PM - [Link] - Comments ()

Since Lane is on a Roll Today


I'll just me to this post on the undermining of science by this administration.

As the point was made in comments today, this administration is increasingly relying on faith based science. And I'm not making a snarky creationism comment here, but on a wide range of issues the science is being undermined by ideology.

I'm happy to criticize junk science of any kind, but don't we have enough running around without the government subsidizing and protecting it?
archpundit 2/19/2004 12:46:22 PM - [Link] - Comments ()

Hull's Order of Protection


To fairly treat a story like an order of protection against a candidate, one has to be able to make calls and devote some time to the story-the thing I don't always have and so you have rely on a real reporter.

Eric Zorn tackles the order of protection that Hull's ex-wife, Brenda Sexton, filed for in 1998. The documents are sealed along with the rest of the divorce files. The campaign and Ms. Sexton both refuse to explain in detail what occurred.


It's not a "personal matter" when questions about the circumstances behind a request for an order of protection hang over the head of a man who is at or near the top of the polls in the race for his party's nomination for the U.S. Senate.

Maybe it was nothing, really. But maybe not. And the truth is, Hull's candidacy has given us a right to know.


For Democrats the question should be simple. What happened? We just spent a few weeks trying to get a President to tell us what happened during his service to the National Guard. We still don't seem to have all the answers to that question and it is a drain on his credibility. Perhaps there is a simple answer, but the President has drawn it out by avoiding the issue. Even with the release of records, people can't tell where he was when. Drip, drip, drip.

You can be sure that Jack Ryan, Andrew McKenna, Steve Rauschenberger, and especially Jim Oberweis will have the issue raised, whether by them or by surrogates. If the information is not released it will be a constant drip, drip, drip questioning Hull's credibility.

So do everyone a favor and release the records and talk about it now. If there is nothing there we can quickly move on. If there is something there, Hull has a chance to take responsibility and the opportunity for damage control in the party's primary. But Democratic voters should know what they are getting before the general election and make both personal evaluations of the incident as well as an evaluation of the impact on Hull's electability, if any.

Eric doesn't mention it, but very personal allegations were later made against 1992 Senate Candidate Al Hofeld. An order of protection is far less serious than that which Hofeld was accused, but serious nonetheless. Hofeld probably would have been in the Senate when the allegation came out if he had been successful in the primary. That would have been unacceptable. Voters deserve to know about the character of their representatives. In this case, determining that character will be done by how forthright he is about a relatively recent event.

archpundit 2/19/2004 12:13:44 PM - [Link] - Comments ()

Sad News


Steve Neal Passed Away
archpundit 2/19/2004 10:54:33 AM - [Link] - Comments ()

Let's Turn That Energy Into Arm Twisting for Senate Bill 101


Holy Cow!

Daley is certainly not his father, but damn, this mornings Sun-Times reports on his support for gay marriage, but also his support for a possible San Francisco style protest with Cook County marrying gays and lesbians.

"They're your doctors, your lawyers, your journalists, your politicians," the mayor said. "They're someone's son or daughter. They're someone's mother or father. . . . I've seen people of the same sex adopt children, have families. [They're] great parents.

"Some people have a difference of opinion -- that only a man and a woman can get married. But in the long run, we have to understand what they're saying. They love each other just as much as anyone else.''

A devout Catholic, Daley scoffed at the suggestion that gay marriage would somehow undermine the institution of marriage between a man and a woman.

"Marriage has been undermined by divorce, so don't tell me about marriage. You're not going to lecture me about marriage. People should look at their own life and look in their own mirror. Marriage has been undermined for a number of years if you look at the facts and figures on it. Don't blame the gay and lesbian, transgender and transsexual community. Please don't blame them for it," he said.

Daley said he has no control over marriage licenses in Cook County. But if Orr wants to take that bold step, the mayor has no problem with it.


I'm going to put the cart before the horse too and say if Richard Daley is this far on the issue, the inevitability of gay marriage shouldn't be questioned. There is a lot of hard work ahead to overcome obstacles in the political system, but it will happen. Already polls show younger adults in favor with most of the opposition amongst older citizens.

That said, Mr. Mayor, why don't you twist some arms for Senate Bill 101. It's time to guarantee housing and employment protections.

Via Atrios who shouldn't be beating me to Chicago stories.
archpundit 2/19/2004 10:43:58 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
2/18/2004

Maddux returns to Cubs


Don't Screw It Up Hendry

Trib runs the Season Preview today too
archpundit 2/18/2004 11:39:38 AM - [Link] - Comments ()

Bush Undercutting NCLB Again


From American Institute of Biological Sciences



The administration's fiscal year 2005 budget request includes a 17.9 percent cut to the National Science Foundation's Education and Human Resources (EHR) Directorate. Overall, the directorate would lose $167.62 million, putting the FY 2005 total request for the directorate at $771.36 million. The majority of this cut (-$139.17 million) comes from the administration's proposal to eliminate NSF's Math and Science Partnership Grant Program. The President has proposed moving these funds to the Department of Education where they would be disbursed to states based on population rather than by NSF's competitive, peer review process. This proposal could stifle the development of innovative practices for improving student achievement in math and science, the purpose of the NSF program. A February 10th statement issued by the presidents of the National Association of State Universities and Land Grant Colleges, the American Association of Universities and the American Council on Education, urges House Science Committee Chairman Sherwood L. Boehlert (R-NY) "to oppose the proposal&to transfer funds for the Math-Science Partnership (MSP) program from the National Science Foundation (NSF) to the Department of Education." The presidents further state, "It is our belief that the current system, in which parallel and complementary MSP programs exist and are funded at both the NSF and the Department of Education, is the most desirable and effective approach to address our nation's math-science education needs.

Other areas of the EHR budget that will be trimmed if the Presidents budget is enacted include $10.44 million (-11.1%) less for EPSCOR, $39.51 million (-18.6%) less for Elementary, Secondary and Informal Education from the phase-out of Education System Reform, and a $7.91 million (-6.8%) cut to the Human Resources Development accounts. Three programmatic areas that would receive increased funding in FY 2005 are the Division of Undergraduate Education (+$3.35 million, or 2.2%), Graduate Education (+$17.93 million, or 11.5%), and Research, Evaluation and Communication (+$8.13 million, or 12.4%). NSF budget documents note that, "Faced with difficult choices for competing and meritorious investments, EHRs FY 2005 Budget Request emphasizes the core areas of attracting and preparing U.S. Citizens for STEM careers (including increasing support for the Integrative Graduate Education and research Traineeship, graduate Research Fellowship and Graduate Fellows in K-12 Education programs)".


Those who support the scientifically demonstrated reform model aspect of No Child Left Behind should be outraged at the the above. The problem with school reform for too long has been that it has not centered on demonstrating the effectiveness of a reform model. Too often reform models were promoted based on little systematic evidence.

One of the serious antidotes to the proliferation of reform models without evidence was the NSF programs that sought to rigorously study models of math and science education reform.

The President is proposing in the above to get rid of the peer reviewed competitive process that weeds out weak proposals to simply give the money out by population of the state. This means the money will not be tied to rigorous studies of school achievement and will simply be doled out on population. Now, more than anytime in the past, we need strong evidence supported models of educational reform. This will undercut a key program that supported such efforts.
archpundit 2/18/2004 11:17:01 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
2/17/2004

Republican Roll Call 2/17--Poi in St. Louis


No change. Scroll Down. I have more important things to do. Poi Dog Pondering to be exact.
archpundit 2/17/2004 5:31:39 PM - [Link] - Comments ()

Illinois Democratic Senate Roll Call 2/17


1) Hull takes the one spot. Ahead in the numbers. Ahead in money. Ahead in future ad buys. One wild card is whether the press takes an interest in his background or not. Reportedly already has slick anti-attack ads to counter any other candidates. Importantly, they don't name others and they focus on Hull's positive message. The lesson here is that he already has a strategy for this problem-instead of responding on the fly when campaigns often overheat out of anger. He's also about going on the air on the Spanish language stations with ads from Congressman Luis Gutierrez.

2) Obama is solid with his base and probably will do better as he actually has some personality and many people are just starting to pay attention to the race. Doing well financially, but faces a Hull of time getting his message out over the air. His yard signs have pictures which will help in the African-American community. Turnout, turnout, turnout for Obama to pull this off.

3) Hynes. Oops. Decent money and lots of organizational support, but not the kind of money he needs. For a statewide office holder to be behind a novice who is digging into the office holder's base is bad news. He has to attack somehow, but a frontal attack is more likely to benefit Obama. Look for labor friendly 527s to get in the action against Hull.

4) Pappas. Has name recognition, now needs a strategy. She'll be shut out of the big ending to the campaign, but might position herself well for another office.

5) Chico--no base of support big enough to support him. The Hispanic vote is divided and he needs it united. Has cash, but not enough to stay with the big three. Possible spoiler in some areas of the suburbs where his education message will play well.

6) Skinner--time to throw your support to Obama if you want a progressive candidate, Nancy.

7) Washington--only possibility of effecting the outcome is if she spoils the race for Obama by taking some small sliver of African-American votes.
archpundit 2/17/2004 5:10:36 PM - [Link] - Comments ()

Zorn Out


The Lockhorns are just a worn out stereotype of men and women from the 1950s. Zorn probably likes Prince Valiant too...

But really, I think I offer a story of hope. Despite all evidence of past strips, I continue to read the Lockhorns, hoping they will finally amuse me. This is in contrast to Cathy or Marmaduke, both of which I gave up on in the 1980s.
archpundit 2/17/2004 4:56:28 PM - [Link] - Comments ()

ICFST--DeKalb


(ICFST==Illinois Circular Firing Squad Team===Illinois Republicans)

Rich Miller points out their most recent hijinks
archpundit 2/17/2004 4:22:39 PM - [Link] - Comments ()

Dean For America Chicago Office Closing


Hello!

Just a note to let you know that we are closing our Dean for America,
Chicago Office at 20 North Wacker, Suite 2200, this week. (DFA is closing all of the national satellite offices).

Please help us. We are offering you anything "Dean" we have here.
Please take it, it is free!!!

- Boxes of Literature
- DFA Signs & Posters
- Lapel Stickers
- DFA Chicago Letterhead & envelopes
- Boxes of reply card envelopes and Invitation envelopes.
- Yard Signs
- Hand Made Signs

Please let us know what you would like to have as a piece of campaign
history.

Feel free to contact me at the information below to make arrangements.
Materials need to be picked up by Friday, February 20th at 5 pm.

We appreciate all of your support.

Best- Jenny

Jenny M. Lehner
Midwest Finance Director
Dean for America

=====

Now me:

That's about it. I do hope the Governor can maintain a presence that maintains the activism of his campaign for the upcoming election.
archpundit 2/17/2004 3:59:51 PM - [Link] - Comments ()

When I Knew It Was Over for Dean


When he advocated the Metric System<

Winning a close race is more than a matter of feet and inches. Just ask Howard Dean, who, during a question-and-answer session at a Spokane, Wash., rally, endorsed pushing Americans to embrace the metric system.

"We are attached to feet and so forth," Dean said. "I'm a doctor. I was trained and we do our calculations in meters. We don't use feet and inches and cubic inches and things like that."

Dean said he doubted Congress would present him a bill to mandate use of the metric system, given the American failure to adopt it during Jimmy Carter's administration.

Still, he said, "We should have converted already. We should do it. I think there's going to be a lot of resistance, but it would be nice to have somebody explain to the American people why it would be easier and better for our businesses."


Don't get me wrong, I wholeheartedly agree with him. The Metric System makes far more sense and would make the US more efficient. Hence, it isn't going to happen anytime soon. I can just hear Billy Tauzin or some other idiot whipping the masses into French bashing and "everyone should do what we want" faux patriotism in defense of traditional weights and measures.
archpundit 2/17/2004 1:10:44 AM - [Link] - Comments ()

Take the Non-Geezer Chicago Poll


over at Eric Zorn's. Can you beat a current St. Louisan who only lived in the burbs for about a year?

103--I missed some of the media questions. I'm never good at media questions. I aced the politics, of course.

Also, scroll down and notice the snarky comment about the Lockhorns. I'm a fan of the Lockhorns, but not a traditional fan. You see, the Lockhorns have never made me laugh once. I read them every Sunday and they have yet to crack a smile on my face. But every weekend I try and see if there is anything mildly humourous. Some cynics suggested I'd find it funny after marriage.

Nope, still not funny. Not even close. But I hold out for something every week.

What I do want to know is what human being who hasn't already committed suicide from the hopelessness of their lives finds any humor in that comic?
archpundit 2/17/2004 1:02:31 AM - [Link] - Comments ()

Who Wasn't Expecting the Hull Surge?


On February 13th, Rich Miller published a full run-down on the Survey USA in the Capitol Fax (sorry, but you have to subscribe to the actual fax for this one--see site for how).

The gist of the story is that not only is Blair Hull taking a lead, but he is doing it in almost every category. Take a look at the results available from Survey USA (pdf format). Hull isn't just ahead overall, he is ahead in all of the demographic categories except Black and Hispanic. In those two, he is second. Geographically, Hull is ahead in Downstate and the Collar Counties, second in Cook behind Obama. Amongst those ideologically self-identified, he's tied Obama amongst liberals and ahead with conservatives and moderates. As Miller pointed out, Hull is liberal, but no one ever accused mass public opinion of being consistent.

A small note on the Survey USA polling--it is done by computer so the reliability is questioned by some.

Many seem surprised by the findings, but why? There is a model for his campaign (other than the statistical one he devised) and it was John Corzine's campaign in the 2000 New Jersey Senate Election.

Corzine faced former Democratic New Jersey Governor Jim Florio in the primary. Early on, Florio was well ahead with both organizational support (though key players went with Corzine) and name recognition. Corzine won 58-42.

Let's look back at the polls in that race.

February 23, 2000 35 point lead for Florio according to a Quinnipiac Survey. That was about 3 1/2 months out of the June 6th primary election with articles noting that Corzine had spent over $3 million

March 30th 50-26 Florio lead

May 10th-Just under one month before the election 48-33 Corzine over Florio

May 26th 47-28 Corzine over Florio, 56-30 for Corzine of those who intend to vote

Final tally 58-42 Corzine.

For one obvious reason this race is different. There are five serious contenders in the race instead of two, but let's look at the polling trends since September 2003.

September 2003--5 1/2 months from election day
Hynes 10
Hull 9
Obama 8
Chico 7
Pappas not included

January 2004 2 months out
Hynes 14
Obama 14
Pappas 14
Hull 10

Survey USA January
Hynes 20
Obama 19
Hull 19
Pappas 18

Survey USA February
Hull 29
Hynes 19
Obama 19
Pappas 14

One month out Corzine showed distance. One month out, Hull is showing distance.

Does this mean Hull will win the primary? No. The field is divided so Hull has a more dynamic race to run than Corzine did. It does mean that someone who is getting hurt by him has to find a way to attack him. And that person is Dan Hynes, as Miller pointed out in his Friday story. Clearly, Hynes' internals were showing deep problems downstate and hence the recent tour of Central and Southern Illinois. Free media can be picked up in smaller markets--even a little time in Metro-East.

The larger problem is that Hull hasn't even hit his big media buy yet and Dan Hynes is in no shape to counter that effort. He doesn't have adequate funds. Negative ads are a problem because Hynes would have to take ownership of the ads according to the new FEC regulations and say he paid for the ad (Miller pointed this out too). And Hynes agreed to Dick Durbin's no negative ads against other Democrats pledge.

In fact, if Hynes were to attack he would probably damage Hull to some degree to the benefit of Barack Obama who can stay above the fray and simply look to turnout black and liberal votes while the other two go after one another. In such a scenario, Joyce Washington may play a spoiler to Obama even with a small number of votes.

Why did so many miss this? Because the past guides most of our views of the future and in the past, organization wins in Illinois. And Dan Hynes has organization as my e-mail demonstrates with the union of the day endorsement for Hynes. When one looks at other states, the potential for Hull was clear. New Jersey is heavy with organization, but Corzine was able to create his own organization with money--just as Hull is doing.

Fortunately, I haven't been a naysayer. Since I've been doing the Roll Call in June, I've never had Hull above 2 or below 3. Why? I pointed out organization wins in Illinois, but money can buy an organization.

Unfortunately, a grave bias against stats geeks still exists in the political world,

From the Sun-Times on January 22nd, BLAIR HULL'S WINNING FORMULA


The densely written theorem is a string of precise numbers carried out to the eighth decimal place. It's designed to identify people for Hull to target with fliers in the mail or telephone calls. Those chores were previously handled by precinct captains, who often flunked high school math.

"The basic idea," Hull said, "is you take the probability of voting times the probability of voting for Blair Hull and multiply them together, and that gives you the relative weight of how desirable it is to contact that person."


For those paying attention to modern campaigns, this is nothing earth shattering except that it formalizes the system of identifying certain and likely supporters in a formula.

This is especially useful if one is trying to create a get out the vote (GOTV) organization out of nothing because one can target 1s and 2s, as certain and likely voters are called, in the most efficient manner possible. Some folks didn't pick up on the point of the formula in the article:



"The formula says 'I'm spending $40 million,' " Pappas said, laughing uproariously after learning of his formula. "He's driving everybody crazy in this race, except me.

"Everybody will be running around trying to figure out his formula. ... Forget about the formula. The formula is: The guy's got money."


Not only that, but he is trying to use it efficiently.

The most professionally embarrassing comment comes here:

Michael Mezey, a political science professor at DePaul University, read the Atlantic Monthly piece but is skeptical.

"Winning primaries is very much sort of getting your people to the polls, especially in a divided race," he said. "And that's not subject to a mathematical formula."


Some of the old guys just don't get what statistics can do. The whole point of the model is to focus efforts on the most likely voters for Hull which also includes the GOTV efforts. Given Hull is already canvassing downstate, I'd say he's planned for this.

This doesn't mean a formula alone will do it, but it can be a powerful tool in campaign management. I cannot evaluate it without the data and model and some free time I don't have, but there is no reason to dismiss it.

Later today, will be a new Roll Call (hopefully). I think you can guess who is on top.
archpundit 2/17/2004 12:55:00 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
2/16/2004

Most Important Story of the Day


Cubs increase their offer to Greg Maddux

For those of you who aren't baseball fans, this will be a painful blog from now until the end of the World Series.

(Peoria Pundit linked to it first)
archpundit 2/16/2004 10:30:51 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
2/13/2004

How Not to Deal with the Press


Every Presidency does it, but really now, shouldn't they learn that stonewalling only makes you look like you have something to hide? Even if there is an explanation you look like it is bad.

Josh Marshall reprints Scott McClellan's Who's On First performance

Here is the way to make the issue go away--release the records and answer the questions. Even if it is bad, it is better to release it now because you will release them eventually--trust me.

The presumptive Democratic nominee may be needing that advice soon too.


UPDATE: As I was saying, you will release them eventually
archpundit 2/13/2004 1:18:22 PM - [Link] - Comments ()

Oh, yeah--I forgot Jonathan Wright


in the Republican Roll Call. No one even seemed to notice. I think that makes the point.
archpundit 2/13/2004 12:59:12 PM - [Link] - Comments ()

Internal Hulls


I'm hearing (nice passive way to avoid who the source is) that the internal polling for Hull is even better. Now, all internal leaks should be treated skeptically. That said, there is a back story why those polls might not be the normal push polling. Hull is a stats geek and we (the statgeeks of the world) have a thing about accurate numbers. Sure, we can push numbers, but more importantly we want to know the real state of the universe. Assuming this info I'm getting is accurate (and no I haven't analyzed the raw data--but if someone wants to send it to me with the questions I'd be happy to give it a go with the numbers embargoed until after the election!), Hull's polls should be be both reliable and valid.

Eric Zorn is surprised.


His ads are everywhere, and many insiders and know-it-alls (I'm squarely in the latter camp) who dismissed the uncharismatic millionaire as a vain, inexperienced dilettante who had no chance with the voters must now take serious notice.


Having been down this road before myself, and having been rightly criticized--is it any more vain than the son of a party leader who was handed a statewide office at a young age? This isn't to pick on Dan Hynes--I like him, but what is the real difference? Hull has an impressive private sector background. Others in the race did work their way up, but if we are going to criticize Hull, let's spread it around. I am a big fan of legislative experience at lower levels of government, but neither of them have it. At least Hull knows who the hell Kjellander is and what he did.

That said, we shouldn't be surprised. I'll have to look it up, but I know at least in private my take is that Hull has to increase his name recognition by this time and then be ready to duke it out. Having all the money in the world helps get that name recognition. This campaign has all of the markings of Corzine's a couple years ago except with more chaos in the race from the big candidate pool.

The bigger news for Hull, he is getting some organizational support. Over the objections of the elder Hynes, Dick Mell is set to endorse Hull at the end of the month in an event featurign Billie Jean King and also attended by Bobbie Rush and Luis Gutierrez. Mell is organized in labor and can dole out patronage jobs. This doesn't mean Hull will win the labor vote, but it does mean he can eat into that vote at the margins and this is likely to be an election at the margins.
archpundit 2/13/2004 12:40:45 PM - [Link] - Comments ()

Trucking Scandal Has Some Good Effects


The trucking scandal is apparently taking a lot of energy out the Mayor. While being cynical about the Mayor is generally correct and he has a tough hide when it comes to criticism, this one seems to be draining him according to some around him.

In response, he is looking to propose a major social service project/agency push to address joblessness and homelessness. Certainly some of it is to change the subject, but this is also a guy who takes on thankless tasks such as school reform. Leaving a legacy also plays an important part in the Mayor's thinking.

Reported to me: The shocker: most of the agencies are faith-based.

I'm not sure this is a shocker. The Mayor has long worked on getting black ministers on his side and has used them as a conduit for several initatives. And that makes sense--in many of the most decimated communities the only institution still standing is the church. While appropriate concerns exist over proselytizing on the public dime, I have generally found that in such neighborhoods, proselytizing is well behind survival.
archpundit 2/13/2004 12:11:53 PM - [Link] - Comments ()

Senate Central


I'm back to updating, but to catch up on the best in the race:

Eric Zorn is doing a bang up job

Modern Vertebrate who has all the links and is now reporting at Political State Report. Desperately in need of being added to the blog roll

And finally, the central repository for the Senate race: Illinois Senate

We just entered the hot zone as regular people (those that don't spend their time at political blogs debating the fine points of empty suits) start to pay attention. Having good name recognition is important to scoring well and then candidates begin to really make impressions now. Hence, the Dan Hynes downstate tour comes at a crucial time. Watch to see who can get a good buzz in the media over the next week.
archpundit 2/13/2004 1:27:23 AM - [Link] - Comments ()

And Remember Death is Not an Option


with credit for the feature to Steve Rosenbloom of the Trib

Being a Coward or Being an Empty Suit

A little vague for you? Read Kass's column on the Tribune Editorial Board meeting with the Republican Senate Candidates,

One might think that Kass' condemnation of those who wouldn't criticize Kjellander was the strongest, but read it a second time and Jack Ryan comes out looking like a giant boob.


Just about the time one candidate was proving he went to college by offering a fascinating aside on the Treaty of Westphalia and Europe of the 1600s, I got bored and asked a question.

=====================

Nobody was paying much attention to another candidate, Jack Ryan, who was still probably thinking about his pithy Treaty of Westphalia reference and whether we understood it.

Ryan said he did not know exactly what the other candidates were talking about but said he'd have an opinion, once "I find out what he did."

It was explained to him, and he said he'd reserve judgment until he had more facts.


Now, in between those sections, Kass drives the point home even harder by pointing out Rauschenberger's response:


Then Rauschenberger declared: "Well, then I hope you don't say any more about party building, either of you, if you don't have an opinion on the national committeeman and what's going on in the party. Welcome to the Republican Party, but don't talk about party building in front of public audiences."


Not having an opinion is bad. Not knowing anything is hysterical. From what flipping planet is this clown ?


The column is full of nuggets, but the best is Uber-WASP McKenna saying:
"You talking to me?"


Why I oughta slap you with my white glove!
archpundit 2/13/2004 1:02:26 AM - [Link] - Comments ()

Republican Senate Roll Call


Remember, this was before the most recent poll.


1) Jack Ryan. Apparently being an empty suit is in this year. Don't know about Kjellander's scandal in the Tribune Editorial Board? Being that rich you should be able to buy a clue. Social conservatives love him and he is an attractive candidate. Trekkers still hate him.

2) Oberweis. Yes, he is exploiting his business for political gain and his political campaign for personal gain. It works. Making a lot of noise on immigrants and that gets him attention. Giving away free ice cream for life attracts a lot Democrats to his web site. Still has the social conservatives worried and they are consistently making low level attacks about his ties to G-Ryan and others not in social conservative favor.

3)McKenna--the combine candidate is trying to take back the party for big bidness and the social conservatives aren't happy. Nevermind that he is a social conservative himself, but he wont' criticize Kjellander. Still the combine wing hopes this is their guy.

4) Rauschenberger--not getting the money he needs and not capturing the audience. Strange in a way given he is a serious guy. Very serious. It appears to be two problems. First, he isn't as good as some of the others at the game. Second, he isn't really beholden to anyone so the natural constituency isn't there. Don't count him out though as he has lots of support from state lege members and they can deliver a lot of local votes in a split primary.

5) Borling--Pro-choice in a pro-life party and doesn't seem to have a convincing rationale for why he should be Senator. As Bob Dole has said, if war records mattered, he would have beaten Clinton.

6) Kathuria--the only person dumber than a candidate who sues for bad press coverage is the campaign manager who doesn't tackle him and put him in a straight-jacket until the urge subsides. Using the press as a foil is good tactics. Suing them for criticizing a public figure just gets you tossed into the blackhole of gadfly candidate. Nothing escapes a blackhole.
archpundit 2/13/2004 12:48:20 AM - [Link] - Comments ()

Democratic Senate Roll Call


Okay, pretend this was up last week. But I will be doing another one over the weekend...(meaning the newest poll isn't taken into account)

1) Hynes--Not as strong as one would expect, but still has union and county organizations behind him which is a lot. A bit bland on the campaign trail and a weak defense of his support for the War in Iraq (remember--I had the same position and I found it weak). The top 4 are in a tie in the polls--something a statewide office holder should not be in given right now--name recognition is the name of the game and he and Pappas should have that advantage

2) Obama--Organization, organization, organization. Still has the single largest block of votes. Bright, articulate and excites the base--combining a lot of energy from Deaniacs and the African-American community. By my scorecard best job in the debates.

3) Hull--catching up in name recognition and the cash is still pouring into to tv stations. Ms. ArchPundit thinks the busing seniors to Canada is hysterical and loves it. When Ms. ArchPundit notices such things it is having an effect. She considered voting for a Presidential primary candidate based on his favorite song being Journey. Running a tight campaign that hits old people, downstate and independent Democrats and is canvassing for his ones and twos everywhere--my family is getting calls in Greene County

4) Pappas--good name recognition, but some of the most bizarre statements in a debate since W. Is there a campaign plan or is she just running around like a chicken with her head cut off?

5) Chico--good debate performance and the only one courageous enough to stand up for gay marriage. Good for you. But he still has no strong organizational support and is the crowded out one in a talented field.

6) Skinner--spirited campaign, but the sticking her head next to Howard Dean for a quick picture looked like someone pulling a prank at an amusement park.

7)Washington--Who? What? Where? and above all Why?


archpundit 2/13/2004 12:16:38 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
2/10/2004

Does it Ever End?


For those who remember the Earl Holt story,
the letters to the River Front Times never seem to end. The first batch is about another particular racist who is on the air at WGNU in the form of Couch Potato. He is a cretin.

Why do these spate of letters continue? Think about who takes the time to write letters to the RFT. Get it now? I thought so. Let's not extend that thinking to those who take the time (ever so intermittently even) to write a blog.
archpundit 2/10/2004 2:16:16 PM - [Link] - Comments ()

Neil Steinberg's Ever Present Pissing Match


comes to Da Lou. Neil Steinberg seems to pride himself on being pissy to readers. On Poynter, his generic response to angry readers is posted:
Dear Reader:

I received your e-mail message. Sadly, I no longer permit myself the pleasure of personally responding to snide remarks from dissatisfied individuals, as doing so inevitably leads to time-wasting arguments and annoying exchanges of insults. Since such encounters often end with the reader complaining to my boss, it seems that this is what rude writers really want to do all along -- to provoke me so they can satisfy some inner schoolyard desire to squeal. You may do so now by e-mailing the editor in chief, Michael Cooke, at mcooke@suntimes.com, though I should point out this is a form letter, so his reaction probably won't have the sense of fresh outrage you desire.

Otherwise, I would like to point out -- since so many fail to grasp this point -- that the piece of writing that upset you is a column of opinion, that the opinion being expressed is mine alone, and the fact that you disagree with or were insulted by my opinion really is not important, at least not to me. This is not a dialogue, this is a lecture, and you are supposed to sit in your seat and listen, or leave, not stand up and heckle.

I do not write the column for people who disagree with me, nor am I concerned with trying to convince them of the falsity of their worldview at a one-on-one level. I've done that for years, and it's a waste of time, both mine and theirs, since such readers are not typically open to ideas other than their own, and cannot even entertain the notion that they may be wrong.

Not that I am pleased to have upset you. Believe me, I would have preferred your letter to have been one of praise -- most are -- but that doesn't seem to have been the case.

If you have cancelled your subscription, I am sorry for that too, though I am also confident, as you wade through the arid world of the competition and the barren void of television, that you will eventually soften and start reading the Sun-Times again, and would remind you that you can always skip my column; that's why it always has my name and picture on the top, as a subtle clue.

While I cannot sincerely thank you for writing, I do hope that, as your life progresses, you eventually come to realize just how wrong you were in disagreeing with me in such a rude fashion. If there were a shred of politeness or sense in your e-mail you would not be receiving this letter, but as you are, I would urge you to re-examine your life, and suggest that you reach out to all the people you have no doubt hurt with your brusque and offensive manner and beg their forgiveness. Though utterly indifferent to your taunts, I will myself set a good example by forgiving you now. It can be a terrible world, and I'm sure you have reasons for being the way you are.

Best regards,
Neil Steinberg


Neil Steinberg is no Mike Royko. Don't get me wrong, Royko took a chunk out of obnoxious letter writers (which is even unclear in Mike's case since the original isn't attached). But he did it with humor and not condescension. Conservatives in Central Illinois would all read Royko and the more vocal proudly displayed framed copies of letters sent out by Royko in response to letters calling him a communist, socialist or other cretin as defined by Central Illinois values, like Chicagoan. Royko responded with satire that was bitingly funny. I saw three or four variations, but all were hysterical.

What is bizarre about Steinberg's letter besides the lack of humor, is how it could easily be used to describe Steinberg. A man who wrote a savagely funny, but harsh column ridiculing the sappy Bob Greene is hardly in a position to discuss how bitter others may be because of their writing or for being impolite. In fact, Steinberg prides himself on being impolite.

Eric Zorn addressed the generic letter last week noting that there isn't much of a point even reading mail if you don't care. Then Eric points out a rather offensive bit in Steinberg's column in the next entry.

The thing about teaching and writing is that one gets points across much better when there is an interaction. Eric Zorn points out that he sees his columns as the start of a conversation. While that isn't exactly what teaching is because it is certainly directed towards an end, it certainly gets there better if you include those in the process.

It is extremely arrogant of a columnist to think that people come to be lectured. Many readers are quite accomplished and have better things to do than read the petulant rantings of someone wanting to get their goat. They may well be interested in reading and thinking about a well written argument or laughing at an interesting satirical take.

Raising a ruckus isn't a bad thing, but being shocked at the behavior when your whole point appears to be to raise a ruckus is disengenuous.

What is strange about Steinberg's reply is that he attacks Mike for working for the RFT. That would be the guy who wrote a pseudonymous column for the Reader for two years. Also troubling, is Steinberg's attack given he was ghostwriting a column when he started that included passing along plagiarism. Which is a better way to start a career? I'm willing to concede that Steinberg's start at the Sun-Times was understandable, but it might have taught him a bit of humility.


>>> Mike Seely 2/3/04 3:14:06 PM >>>

plenty, neil, although i don't feel obligated to send you my resume' to prove it. get off your high horse. just because you write for the sun-times doesn't mean you shit sunshine, bro. had you paid attention to my original e-mail, you would have noticed that i allowed that your column could have indeed had a purpose, and allowed you to respond saying as much. drop it.

Mike D. Seely
Staff Writer
Riverfront Times

>>> "Steinberg, Neil" 2/3/04 2:07:41 PM >>>

If I worked at the Riverfront Times I don't think I'd be so quick to pass
judgment. Who the fuck are you and what have you done? Not much, right?

NS

----------
> From: Mike Seely
> Sent: Tuesday, February 3, 2004 2:44 PM
> Subject: RE: the single life
>
> thanks, neil. any writer who takes the time to compose such a lengthy,
> reactionary "form" response obviously has problems....cheers,
>
> Mike D. Seely
> Staff Writer
> Riverfront Times
>
>>> "Steinberg, Neil" 2/3/04 12:54:49 PM >>>
>
>
> Dear Reader:
>
> I received your e-mail message. Sadly, I no longer permit myself the
> pleasure of personally responding to snide remarks from dissatisfied
> individuals, as doing so inevitably leads to time-wasting arguments and
> annoying exchanges of insults. .....



Updated to fix a bunch of formatting link problems.
archpundit 2/10/2004 2:09:55 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
2/03/2004

Yo Joe, Classy Guy


Thanks for everything you do for the party. Glad to have you back in the Senate fighting full time. Let's get on that Global Warming Bill with McCain now. The nominee will need that pressure on Bush. And as an added bonus Bush just cut the EPA by 7%.


For the nihilistic wing of the party, Lieberman may not be perfect, but he has stood for several core Democratic principles. Give him credit for that.
archpundit 2/03/2004 8:25:20 PM - [Link] - Comments ()

My Predictions....


Aren't looking too bad. I thought I'd lost my mojoe the last general election
archpundit 2/03/2004 8:17:41 PM - [Link] - Comments ()

Blake Ashby losing To Bill Wyatt


Wyatt is a nut Ashby is losing to him ! .9% for Ashby and 1.2% to Wyatt.
archpundit 2/03/2004 8:14:18 PM - [Link] - Comments ()

Edwards is the Winner of the ArchPundit Primary


I waited for the exit polls and went with Edwards
archpundit 2/03/2004 7:19:40 PM - [Link] - Comments ()

Primary Blogathon! Visit and Help


Turn your political obsession to something worthwhile...


Stephen at Absit Invidia is doing a primary blogathon for Jimmy's Fund which helps kids with cancer. He'll be linking to stories and raising money. Visit and contribute if you can.
archpundit 2/03/2004 12:57:34 AM - [Link] - Comments ()

ArchPundit Endorsement: Missouri Primary--Howard Edwards


For my Illinois readers I reserve the right to change before the Illinois primary.

My vote for the primay is undecided between John Edwards and Howard Dean and may stay that way until I get in the booth. I like the man who will fight for fiscal responsibility and actually makes a point of how Bush has screwed the states and ultimately the working poor through unfunded mandates and budget cuts. The Zogby worker was a bit confused when I mentinoed the state fiscal crisis as the second biggest issue. I then told her what he next pull down would be. I'm magic!

That said, Edwards has skillz. Great skillz and he is especially good with suburban women who we absolutely need to win in November. And he may be the last one with a shot against Kerry. I also appreciate his heartfelt discussion of race and class in America.

Kerry? Experienced, yes. A street fighter, yes. Able to connect to union workers who hunt? I'm not so sure. I hope I'm wrong and I'll certainly back him over Bush if that is the choice. Ideologically I have few qualms and in some of the issues deepest to my heart concerning Central American policy, he was a persistent critic of our hypocrisy in the region. I'm concerned the press hates him as well and may turn him into Gore II. He has the nickname Liveshot for a reason.

Clark, I wanted him, but he got in too late, and well, Chris Lehane is a jackass. Lieberman--have you ever seen Bush argue he is the Republican Democrats like most? Okay then, bad strategy pal. Ideologically, you and me aren't that far on many issues, but that was one bad campaign Joe. Go Joementum it back to the Senate. Kucinich==nutjob. Al==entertaining.
archpundit 2/03/2004 12:48:41 AM - [Link] - Comments ()

Predictions: A Healthy Kerry Win


I'll cover the Missouri race at least and stay safe with a large Kerry win--around 50%, but Edwards coming in around 25% and Dean around 12%. The rest of the happy campers will come in behind. Clark's campaign is DOA here and of course, in my liberal nabe, I got some Kucinich lit. Al won't register above 1% though I think some city wards breakdowns will be interesting for him.

Blake Ashby on the Republican side will break 1% in U City, but nowhere else. Yo Blake--say hi the next time you are in chat and maybe I'll say something nice!

Why is Kerry doing so well here? Hell if I know. Really. I think it might be the large number of undecideds once Gephardt dropped out and then he was the frontrunner. Given the state was silent until Wednesday, it seems momentum mattered here more than anywhere else.

Edwards is showing some strength here, but just hasn't had time.

Kerry picked up four endorsements on Sunday, from the Post-Dispatch, the Kansas City Star, The Columbia Tribune and the Springfield News Leader.

archpundit 2/03/2004 12:35:17 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
2/02/2004

You Want the Steenking Polls...


Kos has your fill for all of the states, no sense in me redoing the work


In Missouri, Kerry is overwhelmingly ahead, but Edwards is showing life. Dean is, well, waiting for next week.
archpundit 2/02/2004 11:07:35 PM - [Link] - Comments ()

Dean Event


How was the Dean Event at the Missouri Historical Museum on Friday. Crowded. But I can't tell you anymore because after RSVPing and taking some time off work I didn't get in. I thought that was the point of RSVPing. I would have been happy to hang out in the overflow room, but by the time I was turned away from the main room, it was overflowing. So I went home and took a nap.

Word is in comments, that Jeff Smith's campaign was working the crowd, which I would expect given several volunteers and staff were in front of me in line. They had more patience. I'm old, what do you want?

Do I hold it against Howard? No. I'm not as petty as the national press corp can be. I was just tired.

Edgelaw is Everywhere!
archpundit 2/02/2004 10:44:01 PM - [Link] - Comments ()

Joe err....John Edwards at Blueberry Hill


So Wednesday was a hellacious day and why I'm still catching up. I had a funeral in Central Illinois early, happened to get back in time to get to Kerry's event and then drove home and walked up to Blueberry Hill which was already packed by 7:15 for a 9:00 PM event.

The line was essentially from the Duck Room down the hallway next to the door, back up the hallway and stretched to the door. All to get in the Duck Room. Not everyone got in, but they cleared out the upstairs above for overflow and also had a lot of folks outside. Now, I think they counting was Million Man March counting, but there were a lot of people inside and outside. The staff, normally fast and friendly on a Wednesday night, was overwhelmed. Some of the reporters weren't so used to it, but once I explained and once they got their burgers they were quite satisfied.

I met up there with Jeff Smith and a veritable A list of old Metropolis folks. I also got to meet Corey Mohn--though I was in the middle of dinner and beer and so our meeting was short. Jeff and Corey were both working the crowd by the end of the night. I finally made it back to the upstairs room and crowded around with a bunch of friends to listen over the speaker. Edwards was late as usual, but gave a hell of a speech. And it was a We speech versus Kerry's I speech. We will do this, we will do that, we...

I prefer we. Also there was Joe Maxwell who gives a great introduction and is a hell of a speaker. After giving a great stump speech, Edwards came up to the upstairs crowd and gave a quick greeting.

Is he better than Clinton? Pretty damn close. As Virginia Postrel pointed out some months ago, the thing about trial lawyers is that people like them in person. That is why they win. He is a very personable, very positive and generally creates a very strong sense of goodwill.

What I did find interesting is that everyone has been talking about how he has run such a positive campaign. And it is true that he never attacks anyone directly, but he very effectively uses the amorphous others in his stump speech to draw sharp distinctions and criticize others without naming them.

Overall, he gives good stump.

The energy was higher, but then again so was the crowd with beer. At least I was.

Edgelaw was stalking me
archpundit 2/02/2004 10:40:30 PM - [Link] - Comments ()

Kerry Event


Pictures have to follow in this case. But it was packed.

People were standing in the stairs on the way down to the cafeteria at Saint Louis Community College at Forest Park. As usual at such events, everyone was late, but the crowd definitely had a buzz. I was standing next to the Cox news reporter who was talking to a bunch of folks. While there wasn't a heavy love of Kerry there was an excitement about a frontrunner who many seemed to think would be a good candidate against Bush.

Going in the firefighters were working the doors on LaRouche patrol keeping signs and nutjobs out. Pretty lowkey, but amiable and laughing. They checked my notebook which seemed like a strange choice, but hey.

I was relaying the officials to the Cox reporter. An African-American gentleman I didn't recognize was one of the first VIPs and might have been a St. Louis Clergy Coalition member. Jeremiah Jay was there with bells on and a big smile. Though I have to note he wasn't as gregarious as when he endorsed Bradley four years ago at U City High.

Then the rest of the gang came out including Jean Carnahan who got the biggest reception. Tom Eagleton who deserved the biggest reception was gracious, but clearly his health is an issue with a voice that was giving. Others included a former Governor who was before my time in Missouri and so I forgot his name. The Mayor, while playing second fiddle to the former Senators, commanded the most attention while County Exec Charlie Dooley kind of stood on the sidelines.

Kerry's speech was pretty much boilerplate, but clearly gave a good idea why he has turned into the frontrunner. It wasn't the Kerry talking ad nauseum about policy details. It was a man who was passionate talking about why it matters. Especially effective was his discussion of first responders in thanking the IAFF for their support.

The key thing that I mentioned earlier was that it was an I speech. He was the action and he made you know it. It works for him and was natural. He was very relaxed and that was impressive.

What I noticed most though was a real eagerness for Democrats to see any candidate and the excitement was high. I haven't seen it since before Mel Carnahan passed in this state.

Afterwards, he had a press availability and then a liveshot with news programs--appropriately so for a Senator known as "Liveshot" in Massachusetts.

I have strong reservations about Kerry being the antidote to Bush. I'm hoping I'm wrong given what looks like the current trajectory of the election. But he was the best I've seen him in years. It reminds me of the John Kerry who used to point out the hypocrisy in our Central and South American policy while taking on the intelligence community for keeping too many secrets simply because they were embarrassing.

Check out Edgelaw's Version
archpundit 2/02/2004 10:28:39 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
1/28/2004

Still having tech problems


I'll figure out the problem tomorrow. Sorry.

If I get back into town I'll report on the Kerry event and I will definitely report on the Edwards event. Stay tuned. All of a sudden I'm in the middle of a race!
archpundit 1/28/2004 12:09:25 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
1/27/2004

What Up?


As said below, tonight will be more on the Senate race, but for those junkies out there, with Gephardt out of the race, Missouri is being invaded by Democratic Presidential Candidates. Most of my efforts through February 3rd will be on that issue and at the companion site,
Blog Saint Louis

Come on over and visit. I'm working on getting into the possible debate at UMSL on Monday night.
archpundit 1/27/2004 10:40:47 AM - [Link] - Comments ()

Catching Up


Technical Issues and a flood of Missouri stuff. I promise to have the new rankings up and more tomorrow evening. But some amusing stuff at Blog Saint Louis if you wish...
archpundit 1/27/2004 1:24:03 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
1/26/2004

John Edwards At Blueberry Hill Wednesday


So the last guy to do Blueberry Hill didn't do so well (Bill Bradley), but John Edwards will be visiting Wednesday night:

Senator John Edwards will be coming to St. Louis on Wednesday night
to give a speech at Blueberry Hill in the U. City Loop.

This is your chance to come see the man about whom James Carville
says: "He is the single best stump speaker I have ever seen run for
president in my life." If Senator Edwards ends up winning the
nomination, Carville suggested "not only that he give the acceptance
speech at the Democratic National Convention in Boston, but he also
give the keynote. I think he's good enough to give both of them."

So please come join us at Blueberry Hill, and see the speech that
everyone is talking about.

Date: Wednesday, January 28
Time: 9:15 p.m.
Where: Blueberry Hill - 6504 Delmar Blvd. St. Louis, MO 63130

archpundit 1/26/2004 10:52:56 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
1/25/2004

Send Your Prayers


Over to Steve Gillard who is having serious surgery.

Technical problems on this end, but later Sunday new material should be up!
archpundit 1/25/2004 1:25:57 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
1/23/2004

Schedule Information


In an effort to streamline my rather hectic life, expect most postings to show up after 5 PM in a given day. Exceptions will occur, but I've carved out some time most days to write.

That means the Cattle Call will be up after 5 PM.
archpundit 1/23/2004 1:31:59 AM - [Link] - Comments ()

War-Profiteering Is a General Election Issue


You know, if the company really is the only qualified company, then why is participating in corruption qualified?

And what kind of shop was CEO Cheney running there?


Corrected once I read a clearer story.
archpundit 1/23/2004 1:30:13 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
1/22/2004

And Remember Death Is Not an Option


The Howard Howl or the 2000 Election Night Kit Bond Tirade?
archpundit 1/22/2004 5:00:00 PM - [Link] - Comments ()

Win Ice Cream For Life


Trade my soul to the devil and vote for conservative Jim Oberweis--no.

Enter his campaign Ice Cream for Life Promotion--hell yes. And so should you. The Pumpkin is amazing and frankly the best thing the guy has going for him.
archpundit 1/22/2004 5:00:00 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
1/21/2004

Cattle Call Comments-The Republicans


Let's Hear Your Thoughts...

John Borling

Dr. Chirinjeev Kathuria

Andy McKenna

Jim Oberweis

Steven Rauschenberger

Jack Ryan

Jonathan Wright
archpundit 1/21/2004 10:21:18 PM - [Link] - Comments ()

Cattle Call Comments-The Democrats


It's back and ready for the last two months until the Senate Primary. And I'm psyched--so leave your comments on who is up, who is down, and who is just crazy. And ask Eric Zorn when we are getting the Vic Roberts Interview...(Damn Roberts dropped out)


So Let's Hear it for the Candidates---

Gery Chico

Estella Johnson-Hunt

Blair Hull

Dan Hynes

Barack Obama

Maria Pappas

Nancy Skinner

Joyce Washington


Frank Avila is not on the ballot (AFAICT), Vic Roberts dropped in November and Matt O'Shea saw the obvious and endorsed Gery Chico.
archpundit 1/21/2004 10:17:49 PM - [Link] - Comments ()

Much Overdue Post On the IVI-IPO Endorsement


Glenn Brown even gave me a post, and I still didn't get around to it. But here it is. I think it contains some very interesting and important observations:


I was at the IVI-IPO endorsement session this weekend and it was a complete shambles. As someone who has personally admired the organization from afar for many years it was strange to see the "man behind the curtain."

I will begin with the results of the voting for all who are impatient for those things. Barack Obama's name was put into nomination for endorsement and a sole endorsement was voted down by a small margin. Partially, this was due to the fact that a representative of the hynes campaign accused the Obama campaign of having recieved a list of IVI-IPO members and calling them to get them out to the vote - something that the Obama campaign denies but there was no chance to rebut this nor was there any evidence of this provided beyond some anecdotal comments by people who said they had been called by the campaign.

The final vote was a joint endorsement of both Hynes and Obama - in other words it was irrelevant. However, the possibility of a single-candidate endorsement still exists because the vote, while a majority, did not reach the 60% threshold to guarantee this will be the endorsement. The IVI-IPO board will decide the endorsement with this "reccomendation" of the membership. The vote personally upset me because I am a supporter of Baracks but also because Barack worked for the organization and has been recognized by it for his great work on many occasions. Hynes, on the other hand, could not take the time to show up at the televised candidate forum of a couple of months ago.

Some other things I have noticed that startled me:


1) What was probably most startling to me was that it was common knowledge that campaigns bought seats for their supporters - I must confess that this was true both for Obama and for Hynes although it was clear that Hynes paid for more seats.

2) There was an incredible lack of control over the meeting. - and, as a matter of fact, most of those who were disruptive were clearly long-time members of the organization.

3) Contributing to the lack of control was a general lack of civility on the part of all parties concerned. Examples:

- Several people literally shouted at Dan Hynes during the question and answer phase - many of them also clearly long-time members.

- There was a section of the meeting where people were to point out areas where each candidate disagreed with the finer points of IVI-IPO's political platform. When a woman stood up and asked for a copy because she did not know the whole platform she was chided by the chairperson who said "people who join the organization should already know where we stand on the issues." The chairperson later stated that she did not know where IVI-IPO stood on banning handguns!

What struck me about the organization was that it was an ingrown, extremely disfunctional group who uses these sessions as a fundraising tactic for it's organization. They took no real great effort to encourage showing up at this session - despite the fact that it this would be the primary endorsement session of the year. Their description of the event in their newsletter was misleading and I suspect they were hoping for some iteration of what actually happend - that the vote session would not be final so that the central comittee could choose who they wanted.


What I noticed about the campaigns:

What we saw at this meeting could very well be the story of the race. The Obama camp was very passionate. The Hynes camp countered that by being extremely organized. This was true down to having handouts literally stating the way they wanted this to go - they were shooting for a joint endorsement to nullify it for the Obama campaign and give the news cycle to hynes with the AFL-CIO endorsement.

I have to say that I plan on resigining from the organization because I was so disappointed.
archpundit 1/21/2004 10:03:37 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
1/20/2004

Iowa and Back Wednesday


OK, I'm finishing up another series of antibiotics and starting to feel better. So I should be back tomorrow sometime (today is Ms. ArchPundit's Birthday).

That said

1) Campaigns organized to turn out new voters never turn out that way--see Donkey Rising for more on that. Dean's bluster on new voters isn't nearly as compelling as people keep claiming.
2) But, Campaigns with the most money in the primary almost always win
3) John Kerry is acting like a human being again
4) John Edwards was a mystery--he was running a great campaign and wasn't getting traction. Apparently that traction came later.
5) Dean is a bigger winner than people realize last night. There is now space for an anti-Dean, but three serious candidates to fill it. They have to turn away from attacks on Dean and attack each other. Clark vs. Kerry will be the worst with Edwards being the voice of optimism. Meaning welcome to the Dean vs. Edwards race. Dean has the money, one of the other three have to rise to the top. Attacking each other drags down poll numbers for candidates in a tit-for-tat and so Edwards gets the free pass.
6) Bob Graham will be the VP candidate with the general election triggering a Jeb vs. Bob showdown in Florida. Graham fills in holes for Dean and Edwards, reinforces Kerry's background in foreign affairs and provides a Southern duo with Clark.


I miss talking about the Senate race. Be back in full force tomorrow.

archpundit 1/20/2004 11:45:16 AM - [Link] - Comments ()
1/15/2004

Plenty of things to be Critical of...


but aren't the repeated attacks on the State Board of Education comparing them to the Soviets a bit overboard? While I admittedly often compared Normal Community High School to a gulag, I wasn't giving the State of the State speech at the age of 16.
archpundit 1/15/2004 12:58:10 PM - [Link] - Comments ()

Thank You Iris


When not so much applause followed G-Rods statement on in-state tuition for undocumented workers, he thanked State Senator Iris Martinez. Given this is a bit of a hot potato, it really came off as a sarcastic thanks even though I'm sure he meant it as a compliment for her work on the bill.
archpundit 1/15/2004 12:39:30 PM - [Link] - Comments ()

Huh?


The Lincoln Library should be to Springfield what Graceland is to Memphis.

A slight paraphrase of G-Rod during the first bit of the speech.


archpundit 1/15/2004 12:31:53 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
1/07/2004

So, I Can't Help Myself II


Eric Zorn mentions the closing of the Fannie May and Fannie Farmer candy factory and sale to a buyer likely to move it elsewhere.

The missing point in the story is that big business is beating up on small business. Sugar is a key component to candies and ADM pressures the federal government to maintain sugar quotas that keep corn sweetener prices competitive with sugar prices.

The next time you hear a politician claiming sugar subsidies (in the form of quotas) save American jobs, remember to ask them about the jobs they cost. And then check to whom ADM is giving money--there is a signficant correlation.
archpundit 1/07/2004 3:39:57 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
1/06/2004

So, I Can't Help Myself


Kooky Kucinich is hitting the Natural Law Party beat again. While I'm unconcerned with nutty beliefs in the abstract, the Natural Law Party wants to turn faith based science into policy. We would not find it funny (actually we do not find it funny when Christian Reconstructionists attempt to impose their beliefs in public policy. We shouldn't find it funny when other strange beliefs try to impose themselves on public policy. That is, unless you think that prisons ought to adopt transcendental meditation with a bit of yogic flying thrown added.

Well, maybe funny, but not serious.

As an added synergy, the Religious Counterfeits web site funded by Ahmanson takes on the Mahareshi Mahesh Yogi.

Are Democrats going to allow this sort of pseudoscientific nonsense to have a place in the party? I should hope not given how many of us complain about creationism.

It is important to respect faith, but not those who would impose it upon others.
archpundit 1/06/2004 2:42:53 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
1/05/2004

Where the Hell is ArchPundit?


Well, busy, very busy. Two little girls with the croupe (hell, is that how you spell it?), numerous relatives in and out of casa de ArchPundit and a conference paper to give on Saturday in New Orleans.

What does that mean? Back early next week. Sorry.
archpundit 1/05/2004 2:38:20 PM - [Link] - Comments ()
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